Mountain City Weather Center Weblog

As is typical with spring winter weather events, the wintry mix of precipitation that falls with unseasonbly cold storms that rotate through the southern Appalachians (such as like the one the impacted our region this Monday) can produce much more than just snow.

A mix of snow, ice pellets, and a chilly drizzle fell across Johnson County Monday. Some higher elevations, above 4k feet, accumulated a couple inches of wet snow, however, communities where “most folks” live (in between 2k and 3k feet), only some a brief dusting from time to time.

Below, I want to go over the different types of wintry precipitation that you can come to expect here in southern Appalachia, if not again this year, well….October isn’t too far away you know- HA! Thanks to dictionary.com for presenting the “textbook” definition.

Snow: Snow is a type of precipitation in the form of crystalline water ice, consisting of a multitude of snowflakes that fall from clouds. Since snow is composed of small ice particles, it is a granular material. It has an open and therefore soft structure, unless packed by external pressure.

Sleet: precipitation in the form of ice pellets created by the freezing of rain as it falls

Graupel: A small, white ice particle that falls as precipitation and breaks apart easily when it lands on a surface

Freezing Rain: rain that falls as a liquid but freezes into glaze upon contact with the ground

Freezing Drizzle: drizzle that falls as a liquid but freezes into glaze or rime upon contact with the ground

Below is from the NWS out of Morristown, TN.
________________________________________________________________________________________________

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
416 AM EDT MON APR 14 2008

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTHERN AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE...

.UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING MUCH
COLDER AIR AND UPSLOPE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL COMBINE
TO CREATE OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET
...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MORRISTOWN...ON THIS STATION OR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO.

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-141630-
/O.CON.KMRX.SN.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-080414T2000Z/
JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...CEDAR CREEK...
ERWIN...ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG
416 AM EDT MON APR 14 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS OF
EAST TENNESSEE.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  DRIVING
AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.
BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION.

$$

TG

Below is from the NWS out of Morristown, TN. Please stay tuned to MCWC for the latest weather info. for Mtn. City and Johnson Co. Also, please refer to the archives to the bottom right for reasons as to why we were concerned for one more bout of winter in April. These posts were from early and mid March stating our concerns.

If you have snowfall reports send these to billsweather@hotmail.com. Thanks and make it a GREAT Monday!
____________________________________________________________________________
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
825 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2008

…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY…

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION…WILL SEND
SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING MUCH
COLDER AIR AND UPSLOPE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS…WHICH WILL COMBINE
TO CREATE OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW ABOVE
2500 FEET.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MORRISTOWN…ON THIS STATION OR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO.

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-140830-
/O.CON.KMRX.SN.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-080414T2000Z/
JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MOUNTAIN CITY…COSBY…CEDAR CREEK…
ERWIN…ROAN MOUNTAIN…CADES COVE…GATLINBURG
825 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2008

…SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY…

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY…WITH TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 3000 FEET.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING…BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. DRIVING
AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.
BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL…SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION.

$$

Weather conditions will go from one extreme to the other over the course of just a couple of days this weekend. Anything and everything from thunderstorms to accumulating snow can be expected as a potent spring storm plows north and east.

Now, first let’s touch on the severe weather. While an isolated severe cell or two is possible in east TN Friday, I don’t think we’re looking at any sort of widespread severe weather outbreak. That will remain to our west, where our friends in Memphis, Jackson, and Nashville will need to stay tuned to local media. I actually don’t even think we’re looking at much in the way of significant rainfall as this front comes through Friday night. Most rainfall amounts should be under one half inch. Otherwise, most of the daytime hours Friday are dry and very warm. Temperatures will soar to near summer levels for some, in fact.

Now, that’s good for the spring side of the storm. The winter side of this baby will move in during the day Sunday (after a cloudy, but seasonal Saturday). Sunday will feature a good amounts of cloud cover as the moist northwest upslope flow banks up against the western slope. Then, Sunday night, an upper level low will begin to take shape and slowly track across the Appalachians. This will combine with the MUCH colder temperatures and upslope flow to produce periods of rain and snow showers by Sunday evening, switching on over to all snow Sunday night. Periods of snow will continue during the day Monday.

Now, it’s difficult to get much accumulation out of a storm this time of year during the day. This is due to the more intense high sun angle. That said, accumulating snow is still possible if the snowfall rates are heavy enough. Regardless, snow should accumulate down to the 2,000 foot level Sunday night through Monday night (1-3″). For those folks above 4,000 feet, well you may be in store for snowfall amounts of around half a foot, or so, by the time all’s said and done.

Hopefully you read the post and listened to the pod cast from a few weeks ago targeting the 5th-15th of April as a time period where one more bout of winter weather would “impose” itself. After this, I think the snow will be over with for the ‘07-’08 season….

Be sure to stay tuned to www.mountaincityweathercenter.com over the weekend for the latest on this developing weather situation.

As I watched Memphis give their National Championship away last night (blowing a 9 pt. lead in 2 minutes), I definitely questioned the “smarts” of the Memphis players and coaching staff. That said, the post game comments I listened to from a variety of players as well as Coach Cal completely got my attention away from basketball all together, and on what life is really about.

Can you imagine how hard it must be for anyone to sit at a podium and have the media ask why/ how he/ she missed a free throw that could’ve not only won a ball game, but earned a National Championship? Not to mention a 20 year old kid? Being highly involved with high school athletics (basketball and football) and around college athletics for the past four years, I have somewhat of an idea of some of the questions athletes can be drilled by the media. That said, I’ve had to answer questions about offensive line play or blocking linebackers, picking up defensive ends…that kind of thing. I simply cannot imagine how hard it must be to have been on that podium last night, just moments after losing what at one point was only 12 seconds aways in regulation…a national championship.

That said, despite the unbelievably tough conditions, when the media asked Douglas-Roberts how he could’ve missed those free throws to win the game, DR simply replied with (Sir, I’m not sure. I can’t tell you why I missed ‘em. It just happened.) That answer right there was worth more than anything I’d heard all year in the sport events press conferences. (That particular member of the media that asked that question should be banned from sporting event press conferences for the rest of his career, btw).

Then you have Coach Cal and his post game interview which included comments saying how if DR missed the free throws then it was God’s way of telling him it wasn’t meant to be for Memphis and if he made the free throws then it was God’s way of telling him that it was meant for them to be National Champions.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not a die hard Memphis fan by any means. That said, after hearing all season about what a “thuggish” team this was, I found it to simply be the exact opposite Monday night…a night that was quite honestly the hardest to swallow for any player (or coach) on the floor decked out in Memphis white and blue. I actually think more of this Memphis team after they let their National Championship slip through their hands than should they have won the National Championship.  The fine fans and folks of Memphis should be even prouder of their team after Monday night.

Oh yeah, bringing weather into this, it was in the 60s with low clouds after the game!

Of course San Antonio is this year’s destination for the NCAA Basketball Tournament Final Four. Now that the Final Four is down to the Final Two (Congrats. Memphis and Kansas), I thought we’d take a look at what weather conditions are normally like this time of year for SanAn, and what the forecast looks like as we head into Monday’s championship game.

Average weather conditions this time of year feature high temperatures around 80 with average overnight lows still down into the upper 50s. Afternoon thunderstorms can already develop, due to their (San Antonio) relative closeness to the Gulf and warming surface temperatures. It’s also interesting later in the year to watch the sea breeze that will periodically impact the region.

As we head into Monday night’s championship game, the NWS is forecasting cloudy morning skies to turn increasingly sunny. Temperatures will be warmer than average, topping out in the middle 80s. Overnight lows Monday night will only dip into the middle 60s with a touch of drizzle and low clouds redeveloping.

As a side note, even though I had UNC going all the way in this tournament, my team has been Memphis (as far as who I’ve wanted to see win) all along. Quite frankly, I believe they’re playing the best ball at this time (and through the entirety of the tournament for that matter), as that loss to UT earlier in the season kind of woke em’ up and lighted a hunger heading into the tourney. So, I’ll be pulling for the blue and white tigers Monday night…here’s to a great game!

Modeling is looking very troublesome for those locales in western and middle TN during the day Friday.  What’s currently a major severe weather outbreak in the southern Plains states will “congeal” into a major heavy rain event across the mid south as we wrap up the work week.  While we here in the mountains should remain free of the extremely heavy rainfall during the day Friday, this heavy rain axis will push itself into our region Friday evening, continuing into Saturday morning.  Please stay tuned to www.mountaincityweathercenter.com for the latest information on rainfall amounts in Johnson County, and if you must travel to western or middle TN Friday, please keep abreast of the latest weather situation.

Below are a few links (and text from the NWS) to show just how bad weather conditions are in the middle and western parts of the state:

From the Memphis NWS: 

THE
PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER…THE
LARGER THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES AND K-INDICIES BETWEEN
35 TO 37. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT AND AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING GOOD.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED MOSTLY SOUTH OF
I-40 ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH. MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE AROUND 1400 J/KG…WITH LI/S
AROUND -4. ONCE AGAIN THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

From the Nashville NWS:

AFTER MIDNIGHT…BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE SE. AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO ACT ON THE BOUNDARY…LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND OVERALL QPF TOTALS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. GIVEN THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS…WILL NOT ONLY CONTINUE THE FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL ALSO EXPAND IT SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF
THE MID STATE.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT…WE SHOULD CATCH A BREAK FROM THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AS THE FRONT REMAINS A GOOD DISTANCE TO OUR NORTH. POPS
HOWEVER WILL STILL BE CATEGORICAL BUT WITH LESS QPF EXPECTED. THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.

AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL…A SLT RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MID STATE.
WIND ENERGY AND OMEGA PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE BEST TIME FOR SEVERE
WX WOULD BE FRIDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY. INSTABILITIES HOWEVER…ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH SHOWALTER
VALUES OF -1. WITHIN THE ZONES AND GRIDS…WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND NOT SO MUCH THE SVR POTENTIAL IN THE ZONES.

FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST…AGAIN…WILL EXPAND THE WATCH TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE MID STATE. VALID TIMES WILL BEGIN AT 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NW ZONE AND 12Z ELSEWHERE. WATCH TERMINATION TIMES WILL BE 06Z
SATURDAY…EXCEPT FOR 00Z SATURDAY FOR THE NW ZONE.

AS FOR QPF AMOUNTS FROM NOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING…WE ARE
LOOKING AT 2-3 INCHES WIDESPREAD WITH 4 TO 5 INCH LOCAL AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

From the Morristown NWS:

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING AND
SET UP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND BETTER UVV WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH 12Z THUS EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MAKE EASTWARD PUSH ON FRIDAY
BRINGING MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LL FORCING INTO THE
AREA BY MIDDAY. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH GOOD ML JET STREAK WILL SLOWLY
CROSS THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
FRIDAY WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST
EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. OVERALL…INGREDIENTS SETTING UP
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

Just wanted to use this time to quickly go over some of the new stuff you can find on www.mountaincityweathercenter.com.

Of course, several weather “geeks” have come together to keep this BLOG updated with all sorts of weather information, and other “stuff!”  We keep this thing updated quite often with a wide variety of material, so definitely check this space out daily (if not more often)!  This BLOG is one of two new multimedia features to the site.

Secondly, MCWC has debuted another feature that’s becoming quite popular.  We’re talking about the new MCWC pod cast feature, again with the same brand…”Talkin’ WX And Stuff!”  Several people have come together to produce the show, and topics include anything from sports to politics, and of course WEATHER!  You can find a link from www.mountaincityweathercenter.com to both the BLOG and pod cast.

Finally, Aaron Sharp and Brandon Massey have joined Bill to discuss Global Warming and the words used by Al Gore, comparing those that don’t believe in manmade global warming to those that “still think the earth’s flat” and those that think the “walk on the moon was staged.”  Of course, this heated Bill up, and these guys have come together to discuss this issue.  Also, Bill goes over an interview he had an opportunity to get with James Spann, Chief Meteorologist at ABC 33/40 on the matter.

So, be sure to check www.mountaincityweathercenter.com for these latest NEW features, and of course you’re reliable Johnson County and Mountain City forecast!

Below is a press release from MCWC on the new features.

For Immediate Release:  Mountain City Weather Center (www.mountaincityweathercenter.com) is pleased to announce the addition of a couple of new multi-media features to the site.  Both features are viewer-interactive, and include a weather BLOG as well as a podcast feature.  The two of these new additions are branded under the same theme, “Talkin’ Weather And Stuff!”

www.mountaincityweathercenter.com continues to be the go-to weather source for Mountain City and Johnson County residents, and through the detailed weather discussions (particularly, long range weather outlooks) has become very popular through the entire southeast region.  In fact, the popular weather website delivered hits to every state in the nation during 2007. 

The new BLOG and podcast features will give listeners a new and unique way to receive the latest and most accurate weather information for Mountain City and Johnson County.  Audio weather forecasts, as well as a variety of other weather-related material can be found on the podcast link, while the BLOG discusses anything from weather to sports, and even dives into politics every now and then!

Bill McMillan, the websites’ chief weatherman, says both new features are intended to be very “viewer-interactive,” and he says, “MCWC welcomes and encourages folks to e-mail questions or topics they would like us to discuss!”

In addition to the new viewer-interactive features on the website, MCWC will also be publishing their annual Winter Rewind and Summer Outlook in the coming months.  The popular Boating & Lake page will be available at www.mountaincityweathercenter.com beginning in June.

I just got back from spending the weekend over in Asheville, NC.  Asheville is an awesome city (minus the hideous road system), and my girlfriend and I took in several of the “touristy” things to do in the area, with my favorite probably being the Biltmore Estate.  Now, I’m no history buff  (in fact, unless weather or sports are involved I usually don’t like talking history), however, in my older age, I am beginning to appreciate the subject I hated most through my elementary school days, but that Biltmore House is simply remarkable, and I found myself drifting back to thinking what it would have been like living here in 1895 when the house opened (Christmas Eve, to be exact- how’s that for a Christmas present?!).  A tour to the Biltmore House coupled with many stops in the shops and restaurants through the town made for a really enjoyable weekend.

ANYWAY…it was really interesting watching the wedge set up along the eastern slope of the Blue Ridge.  When we talk about the wedge (or cold air damming events) all it is is a cold push of air, most of the time associated with high pressure (centered over New England or the mid Atlantic) nosing a chilly northeasterly flow into the southern Appalachian region.  Similar to northwesterly upslope flow events on this side of the mountain, a northeasterly flow is an upslope flow for the eastern half of the divide.  This pushes shallow cold air down the eastern slopes of the mountains and can lead to ice storms quite frequently during the winter months.  Now while the CAD, or wedge, typically impacts the eastern slope of the Appalachians (from Boone, Blowing Rock south to Asheville and even into GA), if the event is strong enough, the cooler air can “ooze” down the Trade gorge and impact the eastern sections of Johnson County as well.  Such was the case this weekend.

When we arrived in Asheville Saturday morning, temperatures were in the middle 50s, with showers and a westerly wind.  That said, as the afternoon ”churned” on, I felt the wind back around to the east and within minutes of the wind shift, temperatures began a slow decline.  The slow decline in temperatures was also accompanied by low clouds, fog, and drizzle.  Sunday was stuck in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  (Even a little light freezing rain was reported in the Blowing Rock community earlier in the day).  As we ventured back “over the mountain” that chilly easterly upslope flow switched around to a “milder” downslope flow on the TN side of the mountain (in Unicoi County).  That low cloudiness and fog gave way to brightening skies, a ten degree temperature jump, and a gusty downsloping wind. 

Ah…you have to love mountain weather!

(Thanks to Intellicast for the above graphic).

The 60 Minute program featuring Al Gore and the whole Global Warming topic is hilarious. I’ve already seen the show, and the reference from Gore to those who don’t believe in man made global warming (me, along with PLENTY of other CERTIFIED METEOROLOGISTS and CLIMATOLOGISTS) are like people who still think the Earth is flat…well, let me just say I’ve now got plenty of material for the BLOG and the Pod Cast.