http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2009/04/anyone_who_thinks_they_got.html
A very interesting read…especially if you’re a snow lover!
Thanks to Michelle Breidenbach, from The Post-Standard, for the story!
I’m on the road this week so posts will come, but could be a bit “off schedule.” Joe Reedy will handle the radio duties!
Over the next few weeks we’ll bring out our Annual Summer Outlook for your viewing pleasure. Also, the Boating and Lake Weather Forecast page will return for the months of June, July, and August.
Finally, look for a NEW FRESH look to the site coming over the summer. We’re extremely excited about this!
And, yes, work has already begun on next winter’s outlook. With a weak El Nino developing, snow fans should be smiling….
- More Later!
I heard the words last night, “We’re done with snow this season.” on one of the local newscasts, and thought to myself surely I didn’t hear that right! Turns out that I did hear it right.
Needless to say, it’s very irresponsible yet again, as it’s clear as day that we’re going to see one more snow this snow season, and for us here in the mountains, it’s going to accumulate. Yet again, I’m very disappointed to see some of the work by “other weather sources.” I cannot understand what some of these folks are looking at, but that’s the story of the past several years, and the overall problem is a very conservative approach to forecasting, I believe. I rather believe that than believe we have such bad forecasters out there in this business.
Point of the matter is that one has to look at MUCH MORE than a computer number or ONE MODEL. One has to understand the OVERALL weather pattern not only from a local standpoint, but also what’s going on nationwide and worldwide.
And, finally, getting back to the point of this post, not only will the local meteorologist who claimed last night that snow was over for the season bust, but bust in a big time way. Even areas in the Tri-Cities will see snow by Tuesday evening.
70 today, Snow by Tuesday….gotta love it!
The snow is “comin’ on down” across the Colorado High Country! This is all part of the big storm that will impact our mountains early next week.
Parts of Colorado will record 2-4 feet of snow with this storm. Places like Denver will see amounts over one foot.
For a look at what the conditions are like up in the beautiful Ski Country, here’s a look at Main Street Breckenridge. (The base of the town is 9,600 feet above sea level)!
http://www.brecklivecam.com
ENJOY!
This post is serving to point out that ANOTHER wild period of winter weather is in store for the southern Appalachians during the early to middle part of next week.
The forecasts you see from “other weather sources” for 50s next Tuesday is ONCE AGAIN laughable, and will be corrected to the right idea as the time draws closer (but the main problem I have is why not correct the problem now, instead of waiting until the event is actually here only to claim you’d been forecasting it for the past week??????!! Needless to say I have a huge problem with some weather sources and the “conservative” approach, but that’s another post for another day)!
Huge amplification will once again send a trough crashing into the east during the middle portion of next week and as an upper level low gets involved, snow showers will fly here in Johnson County by late Monday night and Tuesday. It’s far too early to get into accumulation ideas, but understand that after yet another beautiful spring-like weekend coming up, Old Man winter will return with authority Monday night through Friday morning of next week. To go along with the snow threat, a damaging freeze will develop.
Keep tuned to www.mountaincityweathercenter.com for all of the updates.
Looking down the road, I think this will FINALLY be the last bout of true winter weather for this snow season. Late April into May is looking much more pleasant.
Simply put, BEAUTIFUL…
Read for yourself…
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Pratt-TheProfessionalEdge119.pdf
Serious severe weather outbreak getting underway and this is only the beginning of what’s certain to be a long day….
For our complete forecast package check us out at http://www.mountaincityweathercenter.com
Here are some highlights from other weather sources.
From the NWS out of Morristown, TN.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1037 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2009
NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-102000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MURPHY…HAYESVILLE…ONEIDA…
LA FOLLETTE…TAZEWELL…SNEEDVILLE…ROGERSVILLE…KINGSPORT…
BRISTOL…MOUNTAIN CITY…WARTBURG…CLINTON…OAK RIDGE…
MAYNARDVILLE…RUTLEDGE…MORRISTOWN…NEWPORT…COSBY…
GREENEVILLE…CEDAR CREEK…JOHNSON CITY…ERWIN…ELIZABETHTON…
ROAN MOUNTAIN…KINGSTON…LENOIR CITY…KNOXVILLE…DANDRIDGE…
MARYVILLE…CADES COVE…SEVIERVILLE…GATLINBURG…DUNLAP…
PIKEVILLE…DAYTON…DECATUR…ATHENS…MADISONVILLE…
COKER CREEK…JASPER…CHATTANOOGA…CLEVELAND…BENTON…
DUCKTOWN…JONESVILLE…WISE…NORTON…GATE CITY…LEBANON…
ABINGDON
1037 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2009 /937 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009/
…A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING…
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY. GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO BRING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION
TODAY.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON…THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE SEVERE STORMS…AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO…OR YOUR FAVORITE
TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS…FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS
ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.
$$
FXUS64 KMRX 101426
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1026 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2009
.DISCUSSION…FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDER EXITING. SIGNIFICANT CAPE AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON…ALONG WITH
APPROACHING FRONT…SO STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF TORNADOES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO FINE TUNE WEATHER
AND POPS…AND TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY…TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS. UPDATE OUT SOON.
From The Storm Prediction Center

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009
AREAS AFFECTED…WRN THROUGH MIDDLE TN…WRN THROUGH S CNTRL
KY…NRN MS AND NRN AL
CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 131…
VALID 101614Z – 101730Z
CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN SECOND PARAGRAPH
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131 CONTINUES.
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CONTINUES
ACROSS A PORTION OF WRN TN…WRN KY AND NRN MS. THE THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO MIDDLE TN…S CNTRL KY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT PARTS OF NRN AL
WHERE A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
STORMS THAT ORIGINALLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAVE MOSTLY
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER…NEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN OVER WRN TN AND
NRN MS ALONG CLOUD STREETS WITHIN WARM SECTOR JUST EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY. DESPITE MORE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NWD EXTENT INTO
KY…COLD TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY IN
THIS REGION. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM MS NEWD THROUGH WRN AL INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN WHERE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS EXIST. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD
ADVANCING VORT MAX…NWD ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS. BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND.
..DIAL.. 04/10/2009
ATTN…WFO…MRX…LMK…OHX…BMX…HUN…PAH…MEG…
LAT…LON 37068617 35768586 34648577 33958749 34598948 35878869
37108851 37068617

Increasing sunshine will help destabilize the atmoshphere this afternoon and evening.

Storms are firing rapidly across western TN late this morning and will continue to push east across the TN Valley this afternoon and evening. This is certainly our best opportunity of seeing severe weather here in the southern Appalachian region so far this season, and everyone should keep a close eye to the sky this afternoon and evening. I’m very, very concerned about what may end up being not only a major severe weather outbreak, but a major tornado outbreak across the TN Valley this afternoon. If you must travel, please keep tuned to local media.

SPC AC 101246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009
VALID 101300Z – 111200Z
…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN VLY/GULF
CST STATES/SRN APPALACHIANS…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM MS AND THE LWR OH VLYS TO THE S ATLANTIC CST…
…SYNOPSIS…
AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48
THIS PERIOD. MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE…POTENT UPR LOW NOW OVER SRN MO
…WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS SRN KY TODAY AND GRADUALLY DEVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH SE VA BY 12Z SAT AS 80 KT MID
LVL SPEED MAX NOW ON ITS SW PERIPHERY /OVER THE ARKLATEX/ MOVES OFF
THE S ATLANTIC CST.
AT LWR LEVELS…SFC LOW NOW OVER SE MO SHOULD TRACK E ACROSS KY
TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES STEADILY SE
ACROSS THE TN/LWR MS VLYS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT…SFC AND VWP DATA
SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A PRE-FRONTAL LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS…POSSIBLY
RELATED TO SQLN OVER E TN/N GA…EXTENDING NE/SW FROM NRN AL INTO
SRN MS. FARTHER E…CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT WARM FRONT
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN DIFFUSE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. BUT SIGNIFICANT LOW LVL WARMING/MOISTENING SHOULD
SPREAD NE ALONG THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT/CSTL PLN WITH TIME AS SFC LOW
REACHES SRN VA EARLY SATURDAY.
…TN VLY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES…SRN APLCNS/CAROLINAS/SRN VA…
LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE/GPS PW DATA SHOW FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE /WITH PW AOA 1 INCH/ IN PLACE FROM THE
WRN/CNTRL GULF CST NE INTO THE TN VLY AND SRN KY. A TONGUE OF DRIER
AIR REMAINS PRESENT FROM FL NWD INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS…BUT A
SECONDARY AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE LIES OFF THE NC CST. MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST STATES
AND GA TODAY AS 40+ KT SWLY LLJ PERSISTS IN WARM SECTOR OF
PROGRESSIVE SFC LOW. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S F SHOULD
EXTEND FROM SRN LA INTO MUCH OF AL AND GA BY LATE TODAY.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH COOL MID LVL
TEMPERATURES AND ASCENT ON SRN FRINGE OF UPR LOW SHOULD SUPPORT
INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN
IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM WRN
KY/TN SSW INTO MS. OTHER INTENSE STORMS SHOULD FORM NEARLY
SIMULTANEOUSLY…OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LATER…INVOF AFOREMENTIONED
CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER ERN MS/AL/GA.
ALONG THE COLD FRONT…STRONG…LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP FLOW
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT BROKEN BANDS OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH
HIGH WIND/LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. FARTHER ESE…
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW AND LONG…CLOCKWISE-TURNING
HODOGRAPHS WITH 60-70 KT WLY MID LVL FLOW COULD FOSTER NUMEROUS
DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
HEATING BOOSTS SFC TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 F. THESE STORMS COULD
YIELD A FEW STRONG TORNADOES…IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
HIGH WIND. THIS THREAT APPEARS GREATEST FROM CNTRL/NRN AL INTO
CNTRL/NRN GA…PERHAPS AS FAR E AS WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT INVOF THE
SAVANNAH RVR VLY THIS EVE.
LARGE SCALE UVV AHEAD OF UPR VORT SHOULD STRENGTHEN E OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CAROLINAS/SRN VA BY LATER
TONIGHT. BUT…WEAKER DESTABILIZATION…ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE
LIMITED LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN AND ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING…MAY
MITIGATE SVR POTENTIAL. A LIMITED SVR THREAT
COULD…HOWEVER…LINGER THROUGH EARLY SAT…ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NC
CST.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/10/2009
For our complete forecast package please see WWW.MOUNTAINCITYWEATHERCENTER.COM.
*PLEASE READ BOTTOM, HIGHLIGHTED, PORTION OF THE SPC DISCO. BELOW.

SPC AC 091716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009
VALID 101200Z – 111200Z
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH AND TN
VALLEY SWD INTO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES AND EWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS…
…SYNOPSIS…
AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE TRANSLATING EWD FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS…LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT AN UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM/JET STREAK WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE MEAN TROUGH BASE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO VA/NC FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS ERN U.S. WAVE WILL PRECEED A MORE
INTENSE TROUGH WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER
THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO NRN BAJA AND THE GULF OF CA.
IN THE LOW LEVELS…SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH
RIVERS AT 10/12Z WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS NRN KY AND SRN
WV…EVENTUALLY REACHING THE DELMARVA BY 11/12Z. ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND GULF STATES TO ALONG
THE MID/SERN ATLANTIC COASTS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
…OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES AND EWD TO THE
CAROLINAS…
EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME OBSERVED OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL BE ADVECTED EWD INTO THE REGION WITH WSWLY AIRFLOW
REGIME…ALONG SRN THROUGH ERN PERIPHERIES OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
WHILE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE OVERLY MOIST /I.E.
DEWPOINTS IN 50S OVER KY/TN TO LOWER/MID 60S OVER THE GULF
STATES/…THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH GENERALLY COOL
MIDLEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL YIELD MLCAPE APPROACHING
1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE TN VALLEY/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU…TO 1500-2000
J/KG OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.
TSTMS /SOME SEVERE/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN
ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OH
AND LOWER MS VALLEYS…AS WELL AS WITHIN WAA REGIME FARTHER E ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN TN/AL/NRN GA. THE FORMER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN SWD INTO AL AS
STRONGER FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ACT ON DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR RANGING FROM 30-40 KT INVOF SURFACE LOW OVER KY TO 50-65 KT
INTO MS/AL/GA…ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CURRENTLY…IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO NRN PARTS OF AL/GA AND PERHAPS AS FAR E AS
WRN SC FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HERE…REINTENSIFICATION OF A
SWLY LLJ WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO ABOVE-MENTIONED…SECONDARY
VORTICITY MAXIMUM RESULTING IN NOTABLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
/I.E. 0-1 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 30-35 KT/. SHOULD FUTURE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIMILAR
THREAT…A MODERATE RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT DAY ONE
OUTLOOKS.
PRE-FRONTAL CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND PIEDMONT…
EVENTUALLY INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME…A STRONGLY SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WILL
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS…HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.
..MEAD.. 04/09/2009