Icy Northeast

MR. FREEZE ATTACKS NEW ENGLAND!
December 15, 2008 by jreedy1

Fallen trees left millions without power!
NEW ENGLAND – Millions are trapped, held prisoner in their homes this past weekend as a sudden ice storm crippled much of central New England.

An ice storm glazed the New England states like a Krispy Kreme doughnut. This was not a ’sweet treat’ to wake up to as close to a million customers are still without electricity on Sunday, from Rhode Island to Maine.

In fact, President Bush has declared a state of emergency in New Hampshire and Massachusetts. The brighter side, fortunately no deaths or serious injuries were reported with this paralyzing storm. Once the debris is cleared, it may still take several days to fully restore electricity to this hard hit area.

‘Slide’ into a round of volleyball!

ICE LAND OPEN FOR BUSINESS!!!

PHOTOS: WERE SNAPPED AROUND LYNDON STATE COLLEGE IN THE HEART OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT!

Click here for the full story.

REALLY Tough Forecast Thursday Night

Carefully Watching The Models; Showing Off The WX Nerd In Me:

If you haven’t already heard, you will begin to hear talk from “some weather sources” about the possibility of a major snowstorm affecting the southern Appalachians Thursday evening into early Friday. We here at MCWC ARE NOT in a position to say that a major snow event will occur at this time, however. Surface low pressure will move up out of the Gulf of Mexico, EAST of the mountains Thursday night and early Friday with a trailing upper level low pressure system. This will spread a chilly rain into the mountains during the day Thursday, some of which could be locally heavy. It’s when we get into Thursday night-early Friday that things become more interesting in terms of winter weather potential.

This is a VERY complicated situation, but if the UL tracks directly over head we would be looking at a period of moderate to heavy snowfall Thursday night-Friday morning. That said, there’s a real lack of cold air with this system, so we would have to dynamically cool the atmosphere (heavy rates of precipitation) as the UL tracks over the region. Also, we’ll have to keep a close eye on exactly where the deformation zone sets up as enhanced precipitation will fall in that particular region. (Courtesy of the AMS: The resultant deformation is a combination of the stretching and shearing deformation fields by the appropriate choice of coordinates, which define the principal characteristic axes. Deformation is a primary factor in the processes of frontogenesis and frontolysis). – Classic event that we could refer back to would be the early March snowstorm in 1999 that dumped a “surprise” 10 inches of heavy, wet snow in Mountain City.

All I can still say at this point is to stay tuned. We want to certainly alert you to the possibility of a heavy wet snow accumulating across the mountains Thursday night, but also help you understand what all must come together to get such an event to occur due to the sudden lack of cold air. At this time it’s still too early for us to say one way or another a heavy snow event will occur, but know that we’re keeping a close eye on things. Talk to you soon!

MCWC Archive: 12/07/08

Very Cold Today; Moderating Monday. . .Snowfall reports indicate that a dusting to a couple inches of snow fell across the county Saturday afternoon and night. Thank you to all who sent in a report!

Early flurries will come to a quick end this morning leading to increasing sunshine. The Arctic front that blew through here during the overnight has ushered in a much colder air mass, resulting in temperatures today not climbing out of the upper 20s for most. Couple that with extremely windy conditions early this morning and you have the makings for a “bitter” feel to the air. Needless to say, dress warmly.

As we welcome in the new work week, high pressure will dominate our Monday. Just as quickly as the extreme cold entered the mountains, it’ll leave. That said, we’ll still be below normal Monday with full sunshine. Temperatures should make it back into the 40s.

Notes: The Mountain City Weather Center’s Web Blog Is Now Back Online. You can log on to see what Bill, Brandon, and Joe are talking about at http://www.mountaincityweathercenter.wordpress.com

Also, our very own Joe Reedy has started a weather blog for Unicoi County and you can find out what Joe’s Unicoi County ideas are by clicking his link on the Contact Us page.

Here’s Your Local MCWC Forecast For Johnson County, Including Mountain City, Doe Valley, Trade, Forge Creek, Pleasant Valley, Shady Valley, and Laurel Bloomery.

Today. . .Early flurries then mostly sunny. Blustery and cold. High in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Northwest wind 15 to 30 MPH early, decreasing through the day.

Tonight. . .Mostly clear and cold. Low in the middle teens. Light wind.

Monday. . .Mostly sunny. High in the middle 40s.

Here’s Your Local MCWC Forecast For The High Elevation Communities Of Stone Mountain, Iron Mountain, Callalantee, Pond Mountain, and Snake Mountain.

Today. . .Early flurries then mostly sunny. Blustery and cold. High in the upper teens to lower 20s. Northwest wind 20 to 40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH, decreasing through the day.

Tonight. . .Mostly clear. Slowly rising temperatures into the middle to upper 20s. West wind 10 to 20 MPH.

Monday. . .Mostly sunny. High in the lower to middle 40s.

Here’s Your Local MCWC EXTENDED OUTLOOK For Johnson County.

Tuesday
Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

33/49

Wind: SW

38/52

Wind: SW

25/38

Wind: NW

23/39

Wind: NW

20/43

Wind: W

MCWC’s Three To Seven Day Weather Discussion:

Unsettled WX Next Week. . .Low pressure will track through the western OH Valley, into the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, eventually dragging a cold front through the mountains Wednesday evening. Tuesday will feature increasing cloudiness with the chance of some light rain developing during the PM. Wednesday will be the day for significant rainfall…maybe as much as 1″ with a steady rain expected for the majority of the day. It’ll also be a mild day thanks to a southwesterly air flow.

Watching The Wave. . .A second wave of low pressure will develop along the cold front. It’s expected that the cold front will be just to our east as this wave of low pressure develops. It’s certainly an interesting situation that we’ll keep a close eye on, but for now it appears as if the heavier precipitation will be east of our region at this time. Instead, we’re forecasting light snow and colder conditions Thursday.

Dry, But Chilly. . .A drier time of things will return to the mountains as we wrap up the week. Temperatures will remain below normal.

“Great site! I can always count on an accurate forecast before we pack the truck to head your way!”

- Ralph Nelson

MCWC Archive 12-05-08

Friday Evening Long Range Thoughts; Working Hard For You: I’m still very puzzled by what the modeling is showing for the early to middle portion of next week. Instead of a big phased storm, modeling brings a couple of waves of low pressure out of the SE, cutting one to the Lakes and then taking the primary low Wednesday/ Thursday up east of the mountains, but too far east to give our region any “fun and games.” There’s still a lot of uncertainty with this storm and, to be honest, the models will struggle in handling the two separate features until probably Sunday. By that time I still expect to see the southern and northern stream come together to produce one, stronger, phased storm as opposed to two weaker storm systems. I just don’t see the southern stream energy being as “strung out” as the GFS continues to show, and if my idea is right, then we’ll be looking at a much more significant storm system over the SE by mid week. Now, just because I’m banking on the idea of a phased low DOES NOT mean that I’m calling for a snow storm. The precipitation type details will have to be ironed out as we get closer to the event, but at this point, I still think we’re looking at mostly a rain event.

One more item that I want to discuss is the increasing # of e-mail I’m getting concerning the chances of seeing a White Christmas here in Johnson County. Statistically speaking, Mountain City stands a 45% chance of seeing a White Christmas any given year (meaning that at least one inch of snow is on the ground). That probability is much higher than places even further to our north, of course, due to our elevation. It’s still way too early to give any sort of forecast for Christmas, but I will say that our prolonged colder than normal pattern we’ve been dealing with for the past 3-4 weeks looks to “relax” as we head into the second half of the month. That said, we’ve been so cold over the past 3-4 weeks saying that the pattern is going to “relax” is like saying Michael Jordan only scored 30 points tonight as opposed to the 45 points he’s been averaging, or that Bo Jackson only ran for 2 TDs as opposed to 4 TDs. At any rate, the moral of this story is to let you know that even though we should go into a “milder” period for the last 15 days of the month, it may better be summed up as “less cold.” There’s still a tremendous amount of cold air available to “tap” in to (as the next week will show) so it’s going to be mighty hard to get any sort of significant pattern change to a prolonged period of above normal warmth.

Lunchtime Rambles: 1.) Increasing sunshine this afternoon and the first part of Saturday. Despite the sun, temperatures will remain well below normal. What’s new?! 2.) Arctic front invades Saturday evening with some quick-hitting, but vigorous snow showers, strong winds, and plummeting temps. 3.) Snow showers end as flurries Sunday morning then dry, but cold. 4.) Wild weather on tap next week, however, the models are still not understanding the fact that the energy in the southern stream is going to be more progressive…I still look for a phased storm rather than one with a couple of waves of low pressure ejecting out. Strength, track, timing of cold air all have to be ironed out in days to come. 5.) Relaxation in this prolonged cold period likely once past mid month. Meaning milder days ahead.

Patchy Black Ice This Morning; Arctic Blast Coming. . .Temperatures fell quickly enough last night to allow patchy black ice to develop on area roadways. Precipitation did, indeed, change to snow last night before ending, but as expected, it wasn’t a big deal.

Look for increasing sunshine as we progress through today. With the early clouds and possible passing mid and high level cloudiness later this afternoon, it won’t be a “mostly sunny” day, but we will see some sunshine.

Most of Saturday will feature mostly sunny skies and chilly temperatures before an Arctic blast invades the mountains during the evening and overnight. Skies will become increasingly cloudy before sunset followed by extremely gusty winds and snow showers Saturday night behind the strong frontal boundary.

A Chilly Night Out On The Town

Just got in from a frosty night strolling along main street Johnson City for their Christmas First Night event. It was an absolute blast visiting with the locals and exploring around the town. I encourage you to spend some time down town Johnson City when you have the opportunity…much more to the town than I realized up until this point!

Places such as the Chew Chew Cafe offered up some delicious Pecan Cobbler (I highly recommend that)! Unique Treasures and Coffee Emporium served up a nice sampling of Peach Cobbler coffee, and Freiberg’s provided a nice sample of a German hot wine.

All in all, some 30 business participated in the event and I would say it was a great success…even with temperatures in the 20s. The colder the better is the way I look at it! Just something about the cold that helps put you into that Christmas mood a little more!

On to the weather…it sure is going to be interested in the good ol’ weather office over the weekend trying to figure out next week’s “chain of events.” That said, we must not take our eye off the Arctic plunge that’s set to deliver some rather quick-hitting, but vigorous snow showers Saturday night into early Sunday. Even more of an issue that the snow tomorrow night will be the bitterly cold air as temperatures plummet into the teens and combine with wind gusts to 40 MPH, creating single digit below to single digit above wind chill values late tomorrow night…

Coach Tuberville, You’re A Class Act

Thank You, Coach Tuberville

Really hated to get the news out of Auburn last night that Coach Tuberville resigned as Auburn’s Head Football Coach.  The man is a heck of a coach, and even after a disappointing 5-7 year, he still had my support all of the way.  I firmly believed that he would “right the ship,” so to speak, and get Auburn Football back to the powerful program he, himself, built over the past decade.

More importantly than being one of the Nations greatest coaches, Coach Tubs., as his players and other folks in the Auburn community called him, was a great man and a person that put things into perspective.  He wanted what was right for his football players…for them to grow into respectable men, to give back to the Auburn community, to graduate, and then become football players. 

Coach Tuberville is a member of my Grandparents church in Auburn and I was blessed with the opportunity several times to shake his hand and “chit chat” a little.  His mom, Olive Tuberville, is a good friend of my Grandparents, and the entire Tuberville family is a first-class family.

I know I’m speaking for the entire Auburn community when I say, Coach Tuberville, thank you for the great times you’ve brought to the Auburn football fan base.  You not only brought our program back to one of the best in the nation, but you did it the RIGHT way.  Perhaps more impressive than winning six straight over Alabama was the way you ran the program and showed passion for turning your players into men and respected people in the community.  Thank you for the memories…you will be missed.

MCWC Archive: 12-03-08

MCWC’s One To Two Day Weather Discussion: (Extended Discussion Below)

Bill’s Fifth Annual Winter Outlook Is Now Available. Click Here For The Details.

Lunchtime Rambles: 1.) Very nice, seasonal day today with sunshine, but don’t get used to it! 2.) Cold front delivers rain showers to the mountains Thursday late morning-early afternoon. 3.) Fresh cold air arrives behind front Thursday evening and Friday, wrapping up the work week on a much colder than normal note. 4.) Watching Saturday evening-Sunday morning very carefully, as there is the potential for some quick-hitting heavy bursts of snow to arrive in the mountains behind powerful Arctic front. 5.) Wind chill values in the single digits to below zero likely early Sunday morning. 6.) Next week looks stormy. 7.) Prolonged colder than normal pattern shows no sign of letting up.

Enjoy The Brief “Spike” To Seasonal. . .Since mid November, temperatures have been running below to much below normal across the mountains of Johnson County. Looking ahead into our future, this colder than normal pattern looks to continue. That said, we’ll be able to “squeeze” one day of seasonal conditions into our forecast.

After a frigid start to your morning (fresh snow pack, light winds, clear skies=excellent radiational cooling conditions), temperatures will moderate to near seasonal levels by this afternoon under lots of sunshine. We may even be able to crack the 50 degree mark in the valleys this afternoon.

Don’t get used to the seasonal conditions, however, as our next cold front already has it’s eyes set on the mountains, and will plow through here early Thursday afternoon. In advance of this front, skies will begin to “cloud up” during the overnight, eventually giving way to numerous rain showers during the late morning and early afternoon hours on Thursday.

The Extended Outlook below is a story of cold and colder… Hey, what’s new?!

Notes: The Mountain City Weather Center’s Web Blog Is Now Back Online. You can log on to see what Bill, Brandon, and Joe are talking about at http://www.mountaincityweathercenter.wordpress.com

Also, our very own Joe Reedy has started a weather blog for Unicoi County and you can find out what Joe’s Unicoi County ideas are by clicking his link on the Contact Us page.

Here’s Your Local MCWC Forecast For Johnson County, Including Mountain City, Doe Valley, Trade, Forge Creek, Pleasant Valley, Shady Valley, and Laurel Bloomery.

Today. . .Mostly sunny. High in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Southwest wind 10 to 15 MPH.

Tonight. . .Increasing late night clouds. Low in the upper 20s with rising overnight temperatures. Southwest wind 10 to 20 MPH and gusty late.

Thursday. . .Mostly cloudy with showers likely, especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours. High in the lower 40s with falling late day temperatures.

Here’s Your Local MCWC Forecast For The High Elevation Communities Of Stone Mountain, Iron Mountain, Callalantee, Pond Mountain, and Snake Mountain.

Today. . .Mostly sunny. High in the lower 40s. Southwest wind 15 to 30 MPH and gusty.

Tonight. . .Increasing late night clouds. Low in the middle 30s. Windy southwest breeze 20 to 40 MPH and gusty.

Thursday. . .Mostly cloudy with showers likely, especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Rain may end as a brief period of snow. High in the upper 30s with falling late day temperatures.

Here’s Your Local MCWC EXTENDED OUTLOOK For Johnson County.

Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
20/34 Wind: NW	19/38 Wind: NW	17/28 Wind: NW	20/40 Wind: NE	29/45 Wind: Vrbl

MCWC’s Three To Seven Day Weather Discussion:

Cold Grows Colder. . .Thursday’s cold front will help usher in a fresh batch of Arctic air into the southern Appalachians. Despite lots of sunshine, temperatures will remain in the “double digit” below normal cold category. If you think Friday’s cold, just wait for the weekend! Yet another cold front (and associated clipper system) will send a surge of bitter air plowing into the mountains Saturday evening, accompanied by some quick-hitting, but vigorous snow showers. We’re going to keep a close eye on the snow situation Saturday night into the first part of Sunday so stay tuned for updates.

Unsettled WX Next Week. . .It’s far too early to get into specific details, but the weather is certainly looking “unsettled” next week. That said, Monday’s weather looks nice with increaing high level clouds and moderating temperatures (though still below average). Tuesday may feature a rain to snow scenario, but again, it’s far too early to get into specific details.

“Great site! I can always count on an accurate forecast before we pack the truck to head your way!”

- Ralph Nelson

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MCWC’s ShowCast

Heritage Hall Theatre Presents:

My Three Angels; Community Theatre’s ‘08 Christmas Production @ Heritage Hall: Dec. 5 and 6 @ 7 and Dec. 7 @ 2:30

At this early stage in the game, weather conditions look cold, but mostly dry for the Christmas Production. You’ll certainly need that Christmas sweater or coat as temperatures remain well below normal, along with a gusty northwesterly breeze.

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Brandon Massey sent in this snowy scene from Johnson City Monday evening as a potent snow squall moved through.

 

 

 

Carefully Watching The Weekend

Of course we have tons of weather on our plate right now with the approaching Thursday cold front, colder air to wrap up the work week, and early next week’s storm, but the most “intriguing” item to me is what may come in here Saturday evening and Sunday morning.

A bitterly cold blast of air will invade the mountains behind an Arctic cold front Saturday evening.  Temperatures will absolutely go into a “nose dive” (from readings already well below normal), along with wind gusts to 30 MPH.  What we’re really going to have to keep a close eye on is the snow potential with this system.  Though certainly not a long duration type snow event, it’s possible that yet another accumulating snowfall impacts the mountains Saturday evening into Sunday morning.  Heavy snow bursts are notorious for developing, in banded nature, behind these Arctic cold fronts once they slam into our mountains.  In fact, this reminds me of a situation very similar back during the winter of 1997 when an Arctic front passed through the mountains.  It delivered a 4-6 inch, quick-hitting, snowfall to the county, with brief, but intense white-out conditions.  We’ll keep an eye on things during the course of the coming days, and if you have travel plans throughout NE TN, SW VA, or NW NC Saturday evening, please stay tuned to www.mountaincityweathercenter.com.  While the snow situation is still a little “uncertain,” the fact that temperatures and winds will combine to lead to bitterly cold conditions is a definite.