The Wedge…

I just got back from spending the weekend over in Asheville, NC.  Asheville is an awesome city (minus the hideous road system), and my girlfriend and I took in several of the “touristy” things to do in the area, with my favorite probably being the Biltmore Estate.  Now, I’m no history buff  (in fact, unless weather or sports are involved I usually don’t like talking history), however, in my older age, I am beginning to appreciate the subject I hated most through my elementary school days, but that Biltmore House is simply remarkable, and I found myself drifting back to thinking what it would have been like living here in 1895 when the house opened (Christmas Eve, to be exact- how’s that for a Christmas present?!).  A tour to the Biltmore House coupled with many stops in the shops and restaurants through the town made for a really enjoyable weekend.

ANYWAY…it was really interesting watching the wedge set up along the eastern slope of the Blue Ridge.  When we talk about the wedge (or cold air damming events) all it is is a cold push of air, most of the time associated with high pressure (centered over New England or the mid Atlantic) nosing a chilly northeasterly flow into the southern Appalachian region.  Similar to northwesterly upslope flow events on this side of the mountain, a northeasterly flow is an upslope flow for the eastern half of the divide.  This pushes shallow cold air down the eastern slopes of the mountains and can lead to ice storms quite frequently during the winter months.  Now while the CAD, or wedge, typically impacts the eastern slope of the Appalachians (from Boone, Blowing Rock south to Asheville and even into GA), if the event is strong enough, the cooler air can “ooze” down the Trade gorge and impact the eastern sections of Johnson County as well.  Such was the case this weekend.

When we arrived in Asheville Saturday morning, temperatures were in the middle 50s, with showers and a westerly wind.  That said, as the afternoon ”churned” on, I felt the wind back around to the east and within minutes of the wind shift, temperatures began a slow decline.  The slow decline in temperatures was also accompanied by low clouds, fog, and drizzle.  Sunday was stuck in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  (Even a little light freezing rain was reported in the Blowing Rock community earlier in the day).  As we ventured back “over the mountain” that chilly easterly upslope flow switched around to a “milder” downslope flow on the TN side of the mountain (in Unicoi County).  That low cloudiness and fog gave way to brightening skies, a ten degree temperature jump, and a gusty downsloping wind. 

Ah…you have to love mountain weather!

(Thanks to Intellicast for the above graphic).

Hilarious…PERIOD.

The 60 Minute program featuring Al Gore and the whole Global Warming topic is hilarious. I’ve already seen the show, and the reference from Gore to those who don’t believe in man made global warming (me, along with PLENTY of other CERTIFIED METEOROLOGISTS and CLIMATOLOGISTS) are like people who still think the Earth is flat…well, let me just say I’ve now got plenty of material for the BLOG and the Pod Cast.

How It All Began; A Tomahawk Article From Jan. 14, 2004

Below is from an article a viewer sent me out of the Tomahawk.  In was written Jan. 14, 04 by Celia Pennington…  Hope you enjoy!

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Bill McMillan never lets the rain, snow, and cold weather get him down.  In fact, he prefers it.  The 2003 graduate of JCHS, now a freshman at East Tennessee State University, is following his passion and on the career path towards being a meteorologist.  He simply loves bad weather.

“Ever since the blizzard of 1993,” says McMillan of when his interest in weather began.  “That storm amazed me and ever since then that’s all I’ve been interested in.  The worst day for me is 70 degrees.  I like bad weather.” 

In 1993, McMillan and his family lived in Auburn, Ala. and only saw about 20 inches- a dusting compared to the several feet Johnson County recieved.  When his family moved here in 1995, McMillan found his realm.

Since that time he has been compiling journals of weather records from highs to lows to precipitation to wind speed to snow accumulation- he has notebook upon notebook of weather.

“I love the weather up here.  I am the biggest snow lover in the world.  When we’re forecasting a good snow I don’t get any sleep for days,” he said.  “I am constantly watching the weather (models).  When we’re forecasting a big snow- that’s all I talk about!

With the help of Mark Reynolds, Rob Williams, and Bob Swanson of Stormteam 11 WJHL, McMillan has learned to read weather models from the internet- the same models the National Weather Service uses.  While the models look like a bunch of dots, lines, and abstract art to most people, they enable McMillan to determine a seven day weather forecast for Johnson County even when he is at school in Johnson City.

For several years now he has been sending updates to the National Weather Service for this county, and for the past year he has sent pictures and other weather-related information to WJHL.  He also updates his friends and family on a regular basis with his forecasts.

It was only fitting that he received a website as a Christmas present, which will enable him to provide weather information for everybody.  “I’ve been wanting to set up a web site a couple years, and finally got to do it,” he said.  “Mountain City needs this.  The weather here is different from Johnson City and different from Boone.”

His website, which is www.mountaincityweathercenter.com, offers climate information each day, daily highs and lows, peak wind, daily snowfall, pictures, a short-term forecast discussion, which is not only a forecast, but also his thoughts behind why he made the forecast, long-term forecast discussion and weather pictures.

While he still has three years of undergraduate work ahead of him in broadcasting, and then his post graduate work in meteorology, he one day pictures himself as an on-camera meteorologist like Jim Cantore or Mark Reynolds, or working for the National Weather Service.

(In addition to McMillan’s website, www.mountaincityweathercenter.com, his five-day forecast can be found weekly in The Tomahawk, beginning with this edition.  McMillan encourages folks to send him weather photos or reports at his e-mail address located on the website).

You Won’t See Any “Percentage Of Precipitation” In MCWC’s Forecast

Those long time viewers of Mountain City Weather Center know that we don’t include chances of precipitation in our forecast. Instead of using “A 50 percent chance of rain,” you’ll see that we use words like “isolated, widely scattered, widespread, numerous, periodic” to describe the precipitation event.

I’ve never really been too big on the whole “probability of precipitation” forecasts, as most don’t fully understand what a “50% chance of rain means.”  Most would think a 50% chance of rain would mean a given region stands as high of a chance of getting wet as they do remaining dry.  This is simply not the case. Instead, a “50 % chance of rain” means 5 out of 10 communities in a given area will receive precipitation.

It’s due to this confusion that we don’t really like to use probabilities of precipitation in our forecast.  That, and the fact, that using such words as “isolated, widely scattered, steady, numerous, etc.” seem to be much more easily understood than a certain percentage chance of precipitation.

Just thought I’d clear up why you never will see a certain percentage of precipitation in any of our forecasts!  Make it a great day!

NWS issues *SNOW ADVISORY* for possibility of convective, heavy snow showers this afternoon.

Below is from the NWS out of Morristown, TN:
___________________________________________________________________________
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1043 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2008

…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS…

.AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
THE SNOW BANDS COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING
VISIBILITIES OVER THE AREA.

NCZ060-TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-102-VAZ002-242000-
/O.NEW.KMRX.SN.Y.0006.080324T1443Z-080324T2000Z/
CHEROKEE-JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-EAST POLK-WISE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MURPHY…MOUNTAIN CITY…COSBY…
CEDAR CREEK…ERWIN…ROAN MOUNTAIN…CADES COVE…GATLINBURG…
COKER CREEK…DUCKTOWN…WISE
1043 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2008

…SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. THE
SNOWFALL CAN BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER BANDS.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING…BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. DRIVING
AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.
BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL…SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION.

$$

DH

VERY Interesting!

Read if you please!  Just something else out there published from a very reliable and interesting source, though the vast majority of the media wouldn’t want to talk about this, or make it available to the general public.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23411799-7583,00.html

Hope your Easter is going great!

Happy Easter

From all of us here at Mountain City Weather Center, we wish each and every one of you a very happy and special Easter this year!

This Was A Healthy Clipper!

http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/856328,snow032208.article

 Check that link for a nice story out of the Chicago Suntimes.  Portions of the region accumulated up to one foot of snow with a clipper system that raced by Good Friday.  Some locales north of Chicago have experienced their snowiest winter on record.

MCWC NOW PODCASTING

Friday Late Morning: Be sure to check out our new features over on www.mountaincityweathercenter.com, with the BLOG and just added today, our NEW podcast! This will be a lot of fun in the future, and a different way for you to get your latest weather news! We promise to keep both updated pretty frequently! Hope you enjoy!

Here’s the podcast link- just copy and paste into your browser: http://mountaincityweathercenter.mypodcast.com/

Thank You, That’s All I Need To See!

I’m not a hard guy to please atall (that’s one word by the way).  The point that I’ve been trying to make all along this week is the fact that the big time media sources out there need to use their weather deparments to at least get the word out about the POSSIBILITY of a winter storm situation Easter night and Monday (what with all of the folks traveling and what not).  Today, those “bigger weather sources” have done just that, and I applaud them for it.  That’s all I need to see!

It’s very, very important in my eyes to get the word out about major weather events well before they take place, or at least once you have time to sit down and study things for a bit (and ask whether or not you can see this or that solution play out).  I have a really tough time with some weather sources out there, as they tend to be way too “conservative” when it comes to giving a forecast or a forecast discussion.  In this business of predicting something that’ll take place in the future, everyone is going to be wrong, and for some, wrong quite a bit.  One shouldn’t hold their thoughts (forecasts) back because they’re afraid of being wrong…just state what you feel will happen.  When we here at MCWC have a forecast that goes wrong, we at least try to get on the site and state what happened to make the forecast not pan out as planned.

 Forecasting the weather is a learning process each and every day, just like so many other things in life.  Just as important as it is to study the models, it’s what you take and learn from your mistakes along the way that make a special weather forecaster.  One thing I think everyone that logs onto www.mountaincityweathercenter.com knows is that we certainly don’t hold our thoughts back!  You pretty much know what any of our forecasters are thinking on any given post, and we try to write down all of the potential (or most likely) scenarios that could take shape.

 So…that brings me back to our Easter night and Monday storm.  The GFS (as of 18z, though I’m currently awaiting the 0z runs) still says “I’ll have none of that!”  The Ukmet, on the other hand, sees the storm off the EC, as does the Euro.  The European model absolutely “bombs” the thing out off the mid Atlantic coast, though is too far east for much snow here.  The NAM brings some light snow in here Monday morning.  Tomorrow will be a very important day for this storm (or, as the GFS says, “no storm”).  By tomorrow afternoon, I’ll have a much better idea of what’s going to take place.  One thing that does have me a bit concerned is the trough that’s going to come crashing in Sunday night…it might just be so strong that it does collapse and crush anything trying to lift out of the Gulf.  On the other hand, I see that SE ridge still sitting and if we could get something to develop down in the Gulf, I think that baby could help us snowlovers out, by directing the storm on a more westward track.