Mountain City Weather Center Weblog

My buddy Brandon and I recently took a trip to snowy Breckenridge, Colorado.  The World famous Snow Sculpting competition took place while we were there, and we even had the opportunity to help “snow stomp!”  Snow stomping is how they get the snow into the huge blocks to carve.

Breckenridge, Colorado is about 1 hr west of Denver, on the other side of the continental divide. The quaint victorian village lies in a “valley” at 9600 feet above sea level, with mountains around town soaring to 14,000 feet.  In case you’re wondering how much snow the town receives each year, well how does 300 inches sound?  That sounds mighty nice to me!

Hope you enjoy the photos!

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The clipper that will swing across the Ohio Valley Friday will help drag a cold front through here Friday afternoon late.  A few flurries may develop late tomorrow morning, however, I just don’t see this being anything of importance.  Once the steadier showers move in tomorrow afternoon, temperatures will be enough above freezing for liquid.

Now, as the front swings to our east, weak upslope flow will develop along with the colder temperatures, and this could deposit an inch, or so of snowfall (primarily in the elevations above 3k feet) Friday evening into EARLY Saturday.

Saturday will quickly dry out with chilly temperatures.  Sunday is MUCH milder and dry out ahead of our next storm early next week.  Modeling continues to be further west than I’m thinking with this feature, but time will tell, and I’ll have much more on the storm/ snow potential here from this storm tomorrow.  One thing’s for sure, those located directly under the deep cold core UL low or just  northwest of the track are sure to get plastered with a heavy, wet snow…

And the wintry hits don’t stop there, as I’m looking at a very, very stormy and cold period that will take us through most (if not all) of March!  Needless to say, those wanting and wishing for an early spring, you better think again!  Saddle up, it’s going to be a fun and wild ride!

Manmade Global Warming- This Is Almost Getting Comical.

Before I get too involved with this paper, let me first state that I’m certainly not disputing the fact that our planet is currently going through a warming stage.  The issue I have is with the whole idea that humans are sole to blame for this warming.  Sure, we’re not helping matters, but I certainly don’t believe we’re hurting matters nearly to the extent of what some (most of these “some” people are politicians and celebrities…where’s Al Gore’s meteorology degree?) want you to believe.  My take is that we’re in a climate cycle.  If one would actually do some research into the global warming subject, he or she would easily and quickly find out that our planet is notorious for going through NATURAL climate cycles.  Heck, most of the “pro” man made global warming fanatics out there only look at data 10, 50, or 100 years ago.  People, climate cycles began much earlier than some 100 years ago, how about trying 10,000 years ago and before?? 

Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m all for reducing litter, reducing the amount of CO2 (and other junk) that’s released into our atmosphere, and just taking a much better and more educated approach to keeping our wonderful planet clean.  I strongly encourage you, the viewer, to read all of the material out there on this subject- both FOR and AGAINST man made global warming (and believe you me, it would take YEARS to read all of it), but just make sure you pay attention to the source of where the information is coming from.  Chances are, if the material is from a politician or some sort of journalist trying to better his or her self financially, a lot of the facts may not be true.  

Through the years of creating and developing Mountain City Weather Center (MCWC), I’ve had the pleasure to meet some truly amazing people in the meteorological field.  I’ve had the opportunity to meet a countless amount of TV meteorologists, as well as a variety of National Weather Service meteorologists, along with numerous college professors with backgrounds in atmospheric science.  You know what the funny thing is with this?  I’ve yet to meet one that buys into the whole man made global warming frenzy.  Now, I’m sure there are a few out there that do believe in such a theory; I just haven’t run across any. 

One of the most respected meteorologists on this planet is Dr. William Gray, of Colorado State University.  Gray is world renown for his hurricane forecasts, another area targeted heavily on the whole man made global warming debate.  Gray’s take on man made global warming?  Well the following are some quotes which can be found out of a column from the DenverPost (with this link: http://www.denverpost.com/harsanyi/ci_3899807). “They’ve been brainwashing us for 20 years,” Gray says. “Starting with the nuclear winter and now with the global warming. This scare will also run its course. In 15-20 years, we’ll look back and see what a hoax this was. Let’s just say a crowd of baby boomers and yuppies have hijacked this thing,” Gray says. “It’s about politics. Very few people have experience with some real data. I think that there is so much general lack of knowledge on this. I’ve been at this over 50 years down in the trenches working, thinking and teaching.” Gray acknowledges that we’ve had some warming the past 30 years. “I don’t question that,” he explains. “And humans might have caused a very slight amount of this warming. Very slight. But this warming trend is not going to keep on going. My belief is that three, four years from now, the globe will start to cool again, as it did from the middle ’40s to the middle ’70s.” 

So, in closing, the purpose of this post is just to make you become aware of what you’re reading and where it’s from.  I gave you my opinion on the matter, but most importantly want you, the viewer, to read all of the information out there on this subject.  I encourage you to read all of the material, both for and against man made global warming.  Please, just make sure to pay special close attention to who wrote the particular piece.   

Heh, let’s not forget the cover of that Time Magazine from back in the ‘70s…”Another Ice Age?”  Just 30 years later?  A Time Magazine with the title of “Global Warming: Heating Up”.

9PM Snow Reports are as follows: Mountain City: 6.5 inches, Pleasant Valley: 5 inches (as of 2PM), Trade: 8 inches, Neva: 6.25 inches, Shady Valley: 6 inches (as of 2PM), Johnson City: 1.5 inches, Limestone: 2 inches (as of 2PM), Stone Mountain: 12 inches.

Snow showers will continue through the night, but the steadier activity should begin to diminish around midnight.

The Heavy Snow Warning that was scheduled to run until 6PM has been replaced by a Snow Advisory, but EXTENDED through 11PM.  This is for that additional disturbance over middle TN that will rotate through here this evening. 

Below is from the NWS out of Morristown, TN:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 PM EST WED FEB 27 2008

…SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING…

.SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE…MAINLY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-VAZ002-280400-
/O.CAN.KMRX.HS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080227T2300Z/
/O.EXB.KMRX.SN.Y.0003.080227T2000Z-080228T0400Z/
JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
WISE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MOUNTAIN CITY…COSBY…CEDAR CREEK…
ERWIN…ROAN MOUNTAIN…CADES COVE…GATLINBURG…WISE
257 PM EST WED FEB 27 2008

…SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING…
…HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE
HEAVY SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING…WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING…BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. DRIVING AND
WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL…SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION.

$$

As much as 17 inches of new snow can be found atop Mt. Leconte, and that report was as of 7AM!  Also, a foot of snow is being reported at Newfound Gap.

Here’s a link to the report!

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=mrx

Here’s a list of current snowfall amounts around the county as of 12 Noon. From the heavy snowfall this morning coupled with an additional disturbance that will rotate over the region this evening from middle TN, I’ve “beefed” up expected snowfall totals. Most folks will accumulate 4 to 8 inches, with some 8 to 11 inch amounts in the “prime” upslope locales. Highest peaks will see amounts in excess of one foot by midnight tonight.

Thank you again for the continuing reports! Keep them coming! You can either e-mail these reports to billsweather@hotmail.com or comment here on the BLOG!

As of 12 Noon

Mountain City, TN: 5.5 inches
Trade, TN: 5 inches
Pleasant Valley, TN: 5 inches
Shady Valley, TN: 6 inches

Neva, TN: 4 inches

Stone Mountain, TN: 9 inches
Johnson City, TN: 1.5 inches
Limestone, TN: 2 inches

Additional snowfall reports will be added and updated throughout the day. If you have a report, please leave a comment or send an e-mail to billsweather@hotmail.com.

8AM

Mountain City: 1.5-2.5 inches
Trade: 2-4 inches
Johnson City: 1 inch
Limestone: 1-2 inches
Stone Mountain: 6 inches

Please check the website and below posts here on the BLOG for additional thoughts and in depth detail behind tonight and Wednesday’s snow event.  This post is simply here to address some SPECIFIC snowfall accumulation ideas…

 For most folks around the county I think this is a 2 to 4 inch type storm.  This is where “most” people in Johnson County live.  Places such as Mountain City, Shady Valley, Doe Valley, Laurel Bloomery are in this category.  For places in the “prime” upslope regions such as Trade and Forge Creek, expect higher totals…somewhere in the 4 to 8 inch range for you, with the higher numbers located directly along the NC state line.  Our higher peaks, such as Stone and Snake will accumulate 8 to 10 inches of snowfall.  These are TOTALS by the time all is said and done sometime Wednesday night.

There’s PLENTY more winter weather excitement in our future, and when all is said and done, the winter of ‘07-’08 could end up as a memorable one (though mainly just for one month…ie, March) IF all of the potential on the table actually decides to play out through the first few weeks of March.  I don’t have time to go into that today, as I’m busy as all get out with our current snow situation, but we’ll discuss these details further in the days to come…

Below is from the NWS out of Morristown, TN.  They’ve gone ahead and hoisted a Heavy Snow Warning for Tonight and Wednesday, which is a smart move.  Some locales will experience near blizzard conditions during the overnight, with heavy snow and strong winds.  If you must travel tonight, please do so before dark, as conditions will worsen rapidly during the overnight, with near whiteout conditions expected at times through the mountain passes.  As always, keep up to speed with the latest weather conditions in and around Johnson County and Mountain City at www.mountaincityweathercenter.com.

______________________________________________________________________________________

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
410 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

…ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS…

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THIS MORNING…BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500
FEET. BESIDES THE SNOW…BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TONIGHT.

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-VAZ002-261715-
/O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.080227T0000Z-080227T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KMRX.HS.W.0001.080227T0000Z-080227T2300Z/
JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
WISE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MOUNTAIN CITY…COSBY…CEDAR CREEK…
ERWIN…ROAN MOUNTAIN…CADES COVE…GATLINBURG…WISE
410 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

…HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST WEDNESDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A HEAVY
SNOW WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY…WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 AND 8
INCHES POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FEET.
LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET.

BESIDES THE SNOW…BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. THESE BRISK WINDS COMBINED
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT.

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IN ADDITION…SNOWFALL INTENSITIES
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED. IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE…KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT…FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

$$