Fall Photo Album

Early season snow up on Beech Mountain, the highest town east of the MS River.

Photo Courtesy of Dennis Shekinah

Looking north from Sugar Mtn.

Boo!

Wolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk, NC

 

 

 

 

MORE TO COME SHORTLY!

Some Local Media Has A Hard Time Taking A Stand In Cold Weather.

* Well, unfortunately, here we go again with the horrible mid to long range weather forecasting by a select couple of individuals on local TV markets. I was hoping this would finally be the year that these select individuals would learn how to forecast cold weather events in the mid to long range, but I guess not. You’ve been warned in advance that the forecasted temperatures during the Friday-Sunday period on some local media sources will bust, and bust badly- perhaps as much as 12 degrees in some areas. Folks, there is simply no room for this kind of error, especially when an official broadcast meteorologist is making the forecast. To be quite honest it’s simply irresponsible to you, the viewer. Don’t worry, you won’t have to put up with us ranting about this all season long, just be sure to take note during the next cold event that’s in the mid to long range. I find it extremely funny to see forecasted high temperatures corrected down by as much as 10-12 degrees within one or two forecast periods…

For comparative purposes I’m jotting down the numbers from one particular broadcast meteorologist (in the TRI market) issued Wednesday evening (Oct. 14th during the 5PM newscast).  In addition to writing down their numbers, here are the forecasted numbers from MCWC during that same time frame.  The below numbers are forecast for Johnson City, TN during the upcoming cold spell of Friday-Sunday.  Once to Monday we’ll go back and see who was closer.

Select Broadcast Meteorologist forecast numbers for the Tri-Cities Airport

FRI:  54/48

SAT:  51/38

SUN:  53/37

MCWC forecast numbers for the Tri-Cities Airport

FRI:  51/42

SAT:  46/37

SUN:  45/35

Actual Recorded Temperatures at the Tri-Cities Airport

FRI:

SAT:

SUN:

Winter Outlook Posted

Bill’s 6th Annual Winter Outlook is now online at http://www.mcwctn.com or at http://www.mountaincityweathercenter.com.

In short, Bill’s prediction calls for temperatures during the months of Dec., Jan., and Feb. to average 2 degrees below normal, and snowfall to total nearly 200% of normal, checking in around 55 inches in Mountain City.

For all of the details check out the Winter Outlook online!

From Fall This Week To Winter Next Week

It’s going to be a busy time in the good old weather office this week as a couple of fast moving weather systems impact the region with clouds and showers.  Light showers are possible late tonight and Monday in association with an overruning event, but radar trends will look much more impressive than the actual precipitation amounts making it to the ground (lots of dry air around).  Better shower chances are on the horizon Tuesday as a cold front passes through the mountain region.

Steadier and heavier rains appear likely next weekend as the big change from fall to winter takes place. A strong cold front will impact the area with rain and blustery winds next weekend followed by temperatures that take a nose dive early next week. We’re not talking just talking about chilly temperatures, but temperatures that would do winter proud.  Certainly, you will need that heavy coat so go ahead and dust it off!

The most interesting item with the inbound winter preview will be whether or not we’ll need to dust off the good ole’ 7-Day Snow Cast.  Some of the more recent model runs suggest some early season white stuff may find it’s way down from the clouds above during the 8-10 day period.  If a vort max can punch it’s way into the base of the digging trough then it very well may try to spin up an associated surface low which would lead to some interesting goings on a little over a week from today…

Time For Those Fall Foliage Photos

It’s that time of year again…one of my favorite times of the year, when the leaves are showing off their “true colors.”  Green gives way to the vibrant oranges, reds, and yellows- with the brightest color usually peaking during the first to second week of October, depending on the date of our first frost.

I am a little concerned that this year may not be one of the better color years here in the southern Appalachian region, primarily due to the fact that we’ve seen so many gloomy, rainy days in September.  For the best color it’s important to have bright, sunny days and cool, crisp nights by this time of year.  Thus far, we’ve seen the exact opposite and it’ll be interesting to see what the first couple of weeks of October bring to the mountains, color-wise.  Needless to say, please send us those fall foliage photos and we’re going to put together an album on the site (http://www.mountaincityweathercenter.com) to show of all of your fall foliage pictures.

In the meantime, check these sites out for more information on the color change that’s now fully underway.

• http://www.foliagenetwork.com
• http://www.fs.fed.us/news/fallcolors/
• http://www.stormfax.com/foliage.htm

First True Snow Event Of The Season In The Rockies

The big upper low backing northwest into the Rockies will be responsible for producing the first true snow event of the very, very young season over the next couple of days.

Check in on my old stomping grounds LIVE in Breckenridge, CO by copying and pasting this address into your browser.

www.brecklivecam.com

enjoy!

Searching For That First True Taste Of Autumn…

Yes, it’s that time of year again.  The leaves are on the verge of changing to the brilliant reds, yellows, and organges that make our region so popular for those in search of ideal fall foliage.  Week one of the college football season is now behind us, and Labor Day is behind us.

It sure was a cool and wet summer across the mountains of Johnson County, highlighted by a record chilly July (a month that resembled that of September rather than in the “heart” of the Dog Days of summer).  That said, in looking over some of the medium and longer range data, I think we’re looking at a fall season that’s very close to normal in terms of temperatures, and perhaps a bit wetter than normal when it comes to precipitation amounts.  For those out there interested in that first big blow of chilly, Canadian air…well, I think we may have something in store for you post Sept. 20.  The overall wx pattern should promote the development of a significant trough over the Eastern half of the nation for the latter half of the month (especially during the last week of September), and it’s possible that we may even be looking at some early frost issues during this time as well…

Remember, our annual Winter Outlook will be published to the site on the first Friday of October.  Without giving too much away, if you’re a fan of cold and snow, this will be a winter for you….

The Way The Seasons Should Go

September 1st is the official start of Autumn, at least to us weather folk.  That’s right, a solid 20 days before the calendar states the arrival of fall, meteorologists  welcome in the cooler season.  In looking over the numbers (temperatures) over the history of a given location, the meteorological seasons appear to be much more in line with what one would anticipate the weather being like during fall, winter, spring, or summer.

The meteorological seasons are as follows:

Winter: Dec., Jan., Feb.

Spring: March, April, May

Summer: June, July, Aug.

Fall:  Sept., Oct., Nov.

Autumn Rapidly Approaching

It’s hard to believe we’re rapidly approaching the Autumn season!  It’s been a fast and fun summer for us here at MCWC, but we’re now getting geared back into the “busy weather” mode, and have a few new things which will debut to the site over the coming months.

Of course, Bill’s Annual Winter Outlook will be posted on the first Friday of October.  In addition to that, Bill (and, or Joe Reedy) will begin doing live weather segments on WMCT Radio a couple of times a week (this will debut in October, as well).  Something else new later this fall will be the 10-day Winter Storm Outlook which will debut on the Local Forecast page.  In addition to the detailed day-by-day 7-day forecast, we’ll look out a little further to give you some detailed hints/ ideas of when that next winter storm will impact the mountains. And, of course, the trusty 7-day Snow Cast will return!

These are just a few of the new things “brewin’” here at MCWC as we head on into the colder months ahead…

For now, enjoy these last few days of summer!

Cool, Cool July…

It sure was an unusually cool and wet July across the High Country of Johnson County.  Below are the numbers!

Avg. Low:  54.1 Coldest Low: 45 on the 3rd

Avg. High:  77.7 Warmest High:  83 on the 9th

Peak Wind:  26 MPH on the 23rd

Rainfall:  8.53 inches

Snowfall:  0.00 inches

The above numbers are simply remarkable for July.  Though records haven’t been kept too terribly long in Mountain City, I’d bet money this was a top 5 cool July in our history.  Most certainly since I’ve had the pleasure of living in the mountains of Johnson County (since 1995).

In the longer term…well, I’ve already given a few hints for the winter (snow lovers should be smiling), but the upcoming fall season should be very, very nice…perhaps even a few degrees warmer than normal for September and October.

SPECIAL NOTE:  PLEASE CHECK OUT JOE REEDY’S BLOG FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE COLD JULY.