Snowstorm of ‘09 Photo Album

Greg and Lesli Wheeler send this snowy scene to us from Trade, TN.

The Hegemann's are snowed in! Trade, TN

Kitty Hegemann sends in this scene walking around in a winter wonderland!

John Woods sends in this beautiful scene, snapped in Trade, TN.

Thanks to Mr. Woods for this wintry scene taken during the Snowstorm of '09

The Snowstorm of '09 slammed into Johnson City, piling up to the tune of 8"

Wind-whipped snow in Johnson City, TN Dec. 19, 2009

Major roads such as I-26 became parking lots Friday evening as the storm rolled into town.

Thanks to Mr. Shekinah for this shot just as the snow was beginning to fall.

Forecast Dec. 18th, 2009

MCWC Forecast Issued 07:30AM 12/18/09

Good Ole Fashioned Snow Storm. . .We’re certainly looking at wintry conditions this weekend. From a developing Gulf storm to an upslope snow event, we’ve got it all covered for you here at MCWC. Look for frequent posts and updates.

Surface low pressure is moving slowly through the central Gulf this morning and will be in a position very near the Florida panhandle this afternoon. From there the low will track just inland, across southern GA and then to near a point near the NC Outerbanks Saturday. Long time locals know that is an absolute classic track for a good ole fashioned snow storm here in the mountains of Johnson County. Sure enough, you won’t be dissapointed.

A wintry mix of rain and sleet will develop by late morning before we transition things over to all snow during the afternoon hours. Snow will become heavy late this afternoon and tonight, and snowfall rates of over one inch an hour will be common tonight. Travel will become extremely difficult, if not impossible across the county. Heavy snows will continue through about sunrise Saturday before the upslope snow shower machine kicks into gear. By noon Saturday, we’re looking at accumulations ranging from 7 to 14 inches across the county, and I encourage you to send your snow reports and photos of this memorable storm to billsweather@hotmail.com.

As we head on into Saturday and Sunday our attention will turn to a developing upslope snow event, courtesy of a northwest flow and multiple disturbances racing southeast, banking moisture up against the mountains. Light snow and snow showers will continue Saturday and Sunday. It’ll also turn very cold and windy along the way. In fact, after this afternoon, I don’t think we’ll reach the freezing mark for several days. Additional accumulating snow is a good bet through the weekend (additional 2 to 5 inches of powdery snow).

The Snow Cover Is Growing

As I write this, a beast of a storm is unleashing on the nation’s mid sections with wind-driven snow, hurricane-force winds, and severe thunderstorms. While this storm will most be know for the wind (I’m afraid of damaging wind in places tonight) here in Johnson County, the greater impact, at least, overall, will be the vast snow cover is lays down from the southwest US, stretching across the Plains states and on into the Great Lakes region (cold air pouring south won’t be able to modify as quickly with the increasing snow cover).

I’ve made no secrets about what kind of cold and snowy winter we can expect here in Johnson County (see our annual Winter Outlook at http://www.mountaincityweathercenter.com), and since my last blog post, things are moving right as scheduled. The NAO and AO are tanking, and the amount of blocking that is beginning to develop over the top is quite impressive, to say the least. When you combine those features with an increasing snowpack across the nation and an active El Nino induced southern stream of the jet, “special” things will happen here in the southern Appalachian region.

While we’ll have our own “fun and games” for the upcoming weekend, it’s the period from December 15th through December 30th that has me really excited. The overall pattern is one that looks to produce a blockbuster of a winter storm coming up the East Coast, out of the Gulf of Mexico. Stay tuned….

Most importantly, please be sure to enjoy this special time of year with friends and loved one!  Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas from MCWC!

Changes Brewin’ As We Start The Holiday Season

Well, as promised, changes are brewing…just in time for the holiday season! After an unusually cool summer and first half of the fall season, November (at least up until now) has been milder than average. That said, check back into previous posts here on the BLOG and you’ll find where the mild November is right in line with where we thought the overall pattern would go.

The weather pattern is certainly changing now. Look for a couple of cold fronts to send temperatures to as much as 5 to 10 degrees below average around Thanksgiving.

Looking deeper into the long range, its becoming increasingly obvious that troughiness is wanting to establish itself in the eastern portion of the nation as we go deeper and deeper into December. As the MCWC () annual Winter Outlook indicates, it’s this kind of weather pattern that should continue, at least overall, for much of the winter months ahead….

Bottom line…enjoy what’s left of the relatively mild weather over the next couple of days, as the “lock and load” cold is just around the corner, along with numerous winter weather opportunities.

A Test From My Blackberry Tour

Just downloaded the new blackberry app for the Tour. This is a test.

Fall Photo Album

Early season snow up on Beech Mountain, the highest town east of the MS River.

Photo Courtesy of Dennis Shekinah

Looking north from Sugar Mtn.

Boo!

Wolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk, NC

 

 

 

 

MORE TO COME SHORTLY!

Some Local Media Has A Hard Time Taking A Stand In Cold Weather.

* Well, unfortunately, here we go again with the horrible mid to long range weather forecasting by a select couple of individuals on local TV markets. I was hoping this would finally be the year that these select individuals would learn how to forecast cold weather events in the mid to long range, but I guess not. You’ve been warned in advance that the forecasted temperatures during the Friday-Sunday period on some local media sources will bust, and bust badly- perhaps as much as 12 degrees in some areas. Folks, there is simply no room for this kind of error, especially when an official broadcast meteorologist is making the forecast. To be quite honest it’s simply irresponsible to you, the viewer. Don’t worry, you won’t have to put up with us ranting about this all season long, just be sure to take note during the next cold event that’s in the mid to long range. I find it extremely funny to see forecasted high temperatures corrected down by as much as 10-12 degrees within one or two forecast periods…

For comparative purposes I’m jotting down the numbers from one particular broadcast meteorologist (in the TRI market) issued Wednesday evening (Oct. 14th during the 5PM newscast).  In addition to writing down their numbers, here are the forecasted numbers from MCWC during that same time frame.  The below numbers are forecast for Johnson City, TN during the upcoming cold spell of Friday-Sunday.  Once to Monday we’ll go back and see who was closer.

Select Broadcast Meteorologist forecast numbers for the Tri-Cities Airport

FRI:  54/48

SAT:  51/38

SUN:  53/37

MCWC forecast numbers for the Tri-Cities Airport

FRI:  51/42

SAT:  46/37

SUN:  45/35

Actual Recorded Temperatures at the Tri-Cities Airport

FRI:

SAT:

SUN:

Winter Outlook Posted

Bill’s 6th Annual Winter Outlook is now online at http://www.mcwctn.com or at http://www.mountaincityweathercenter.com.

In short, Bill’s prediction calls for temperatures during the months of Dec., Jan., and Feb. to average 2 degrees below normal, and snowfall to total nearly 200% of normal, checking in around 55 inches in Mountain City.

For all of the details check out the Winter Outlook online!

From Fall This Week To Winter Next Week

It’s going to be a busy time in the good old weather office this week as a couple of fast moving weather systems impact the region with clouds and showers.  Light showers are possible late tonight and Monday in association with an overruning event, but radar trends will look much more impressive than the actual precipitation amounts making it to the ground (lots of dry air around).  Better shower chances are on the horizon Tuesday as a cold front passes through the mountain region.

Steadier and heavier rains appear likely next weekend as the big change from fall to winter takes place. A strong cold front will impact the area with rain and blustery winds next weekend followed by temperatures that take a nose dive early next week. We’re not talking just talking about chilly temperatures, but temperatures that would do winter proud.  Certainly, you will need that heavy coat so go ahead and dust it off!

The most interesting item with the inbound winter preview will be whether or not we’ll need to dust off the good ole’ 7-Day Snow Cast.  Some of the more recent model runs suggest some early season white stuff may find it’s way down from the clouds above during the 8-10 day period.  If a vort max can punch it’s way into the base of the digging trough then it very well may try to spin up an associated surface low which would lead to some interesting goings on a little over a week from today…

Time For Those Fall Foliage Photos

It’s that time of year again…one of my favorite times of the year, when the leaves are showing off their “true colors.”  Green gives way to the vibrant oranges, reds, and yellows- with the brightest color usually peaking during the first to second week of October, depending on the date of our first frost.

I am a little concerned that this year may not be one of the better color years here in the southern Appalachian region, primarily due to the fact that we’ve seen so many gloomy, rainy days in September.  For the best color it’s important to have bright, sunny days and cool, crisp nights by this time of year.  Thus far, we’ve seen the exact opposite and it’ll be interesting to see what the first couple of weeks of October bring to the mountains, color-wise.  Needless to say, please send us those fall foliage photos and we’re going to put together an album on the site (http://www.mountaincityweathercenter.com) to show of all of your fall foliage pictures.

In the meantime, check these sites out for more information on the color change that’s now fully underway.

• http://www.foliagenetwork.com
• http://www.fs.fed.us/news/fallcolors/
• http://www.stormfax.com/foliage.htm