Welcome Back Old Man Winter!

Old Man Winter is going to blow into the mountains with some authority by mid and late week.  This is something we’ve been writing about for some time and, as expected, the first flakes of snow should be flying by mid to late week across the High Country– and the threat of accumulation is there, as well.

The first big "phased" storm of the year is set to deliver winter back into the region as we welcome in November!

A southern stream feature will team up with energy diving in from the northern branch, causing everything to buckle into one heck of an early-season phased storm by Thursday.  As the low rides north out of the Gulf of Mexico, up the eastern seaboard, MUCH colder air will pour into the mountains.  This will result in a change to snow by Thursday night.  Depending on the exact track of the low, accumulating snow is possible Thursday night into Friday.  Stay tuned.

Significant Storm Brewing Next Week

 

This looks like typical GFS model error to me... May be a long winter for the GFS

A significant storm is brewing next week, but as you might imagine, we have a model battle going on. The feeling here is that the Euro. will be the correct solution, but it sure will be fun to watch as we progress through the weekend. One thing looks for sure and that’s the fact that a big blast of cold, winter-like air blows into the High Country later next week.

With the recurving typhoon out in the Pac. this week, the Euro's idea of a much colder time of things looks correct to me.

Scary-Big Pattern Shift Just In Time For Halloween…

A major shift in the pattern promises to deliver our first taste of winter in time for Halloween

We’ve been talking about it for some time now, but a major pattern shift is still on track to take shape as we put a wrap on October.  In fact, things may grow so cold, the first flakes of snow are flying as all of the ghouls and goblins take the street for those tasty treats!  Stay tuned here, to my Twitter account (@wxmanbill), and over on our site http://www.mountaincityweathercenter.com for further updates as we get closer to this monster pattern change.

Bill’s Annual Johnson County Winter Outlook: 2010-2011

Quick-Hitting Winter Ahead For Johnson County And The Southern Appalachians
Issued Fri. Oct 1st, 2010

Coming off one of the coldest and arguably (only because records for Mountain City are less than ideal before the 1980s) the snowiest winter ever recorded in Johnson County, what does the winter of 2010-2011 hold?

First, let’s go over some of the big drivers in this winter’s forecast.

1.) LA NINA: A moderate La Nina is currently on going across the globe and this will be the single biggest factor in driving our winter weather this year. La Nina is simply a cooling of waters in the equatorial Pacific. Now no La Nina is like the other, so it’ll be important to focus in on the potential that our La Nina begins to fade during the latter half of the winter. This would spell a colder and snowier picture, whereas a strengthening La Nina would lead to a much milder, less-snowy, end game to the winter.

2.) WARM WATER CLOSE TO HOME: Water temperatures are running 3-5 degrees (fahrenheit) above normal along the Gulf of Mexico and just off the southeast Atlantic coast. As we progress into the later fall and early winter months this abnormally warm water will serve as a magnetic pull in drawing colder air masses south, and rather rapidly. With the rapid transition of the chilly air south, it’ll have less time to modify, resulting in a potentially cold early start to the season.

3.) DRY, DRY, DRY: You, the viewer, can go back and look at our Summer Forecast (still left up below) and see our worries of the drier than normal summer that was expected across the mountains. Sure enough, we’ve dealt with exceptionally dry conditions through the summer. Drought usually breeds drought and with a moderate La Nina on going, this “usually” isn’t the best news for drought-busting moisture across the southeast region, as a whole.

4.) NAO FORECAST: The North Atlantic Oscillation index is the “wild card” in this year’s winter forecast. Mid and long term modeling is all over the board, and the current water temperature profile doesn’t tip me in one way or another. With that said, I would expect the NAO to go through periods of negative (colder temperatures here) and positive (warmer temperatures in our neck of the woods) phases, in what looks to be a variable state for the ’10-’11 winter.

What does this all mean to me? After all, that’s the reason you’re here, right?! The 2010-2011 Winter looks to feature some wild temperature swings, especially through the early and middle portion of the winter season. There is the chance that we get off to a fast start with this winter season, with late November into and through December looking potentially cold and stormy. This can be thanked to the warm water temperatures “close to home.” That said, the middle to end of the winter season may not feature as much cold or snow (compared to normal), if our La Nina continues to strengthen.

An average winter here in Johnson County produces just a “hair” short of 30 inches of snowfall in Mountain City. Typically, average seasonal snowfall is closer to 22 inches for far southeastern portions of the county (around Watauga Lake), whereas “prime” upslope regions of the county (ie, along the NC state line) see average snowfall between 40-50 inches in any given season.

Bill’s official MCWC forecast for the 2010-2011 Winter Season paints slightly less than average snowfall (a stark contrast to last year’s record-smashing snow season), along with slightly warmer than normal temperatures. This is based on the idea that our La Nina remains the same strength or strengthens slightly during the “meat of the winter.” This would lead to snowfall on the order of 20 to 25 inches for “most of the county,” including Mountain City, Shady Valley, Doe Valley, etc. Amounts of 15 to 20 inches for extreme southeastern portions of the county, and amounts of 30 to 35 inches for prime upslope regions. After a cold start, a milder middle and latter portion of the winter should have temperatures, as a whole, slightly above normal. Temperatures should run half a degree to one degree on the plus side of normal, for the winter as a whole.

• Bill’s Bullet Points For Winter 2010-2011
  Cold and wintry start to the season.
  Milder and less snowy “meat of the season.”
  20-25 inches of snowfall for Mtn. City
  Temperatures run .5 – 1.0 degrees above normal.

The Slow Dog Days Of Summer Are Coming To An End. . .

It sure has been a long, hot summer.  In fact, this has been the hottest summer we’ve dealt with in over 20 years, here in Mountain City.  That’s pretty ironic considering we entered this summer coming out of one of the top three coldest winters ever.  In looking at the long term of things, I continue to see very cold, harsh winters in store down the road, along with more brutally hot summers.  In fact, the next 5 to 10 years, as a whole, looks very similar to the 50s and 60s, climate-wise.  But, that’s another story for another day.

What we’re looking at now is a shift in the pattern that’s about to put an end to the “coasting” approach forecasters have been able to use over the past couple of months.  The first big shift in the pattern towards a more “fall-ish” look will take shape this weekend as a cold front plows through the mountain region Saturday evening, establishing a trough over the eastern half of the nation.  More importantly, this will set the stage for a rather vigorous upper level area of low pressure to begin impacting our weather.  There’s the threat that this low “closes off”

GFS image from 6z 09/22/10 shows our cut off low

which would be music to our ears (or better yet, dry ground), allowing an extended wet weather period to persist into early next week.  Regardless of the rain, expect to replace the shorts and tanks with jackets by late this weekend, as a true push of fall air moves in.

A True Autumn Preview On Deck

For some time now, I’ve been looking at the possibility of our first true blast of crisp early Autumn air arriving towards the middle and end of the week. The latest 0z model runs only back this idea even more and suggests temperatures dip into the upper 40s for our colder mountain valleys by Friday morning. Daytime highs? How do the middle to upper 70s sound? (Sounds just about perfect to me)!

A True Autumn Preview On Deck

I’ve been looking at the possibility of our first true blast of early Autumn air arriving towards the end of the upcoming work for some days now. The latest 12z model run only backs this idea even more and suggests temperatures reach the 40s for morning lows by Friday morning. Daytime highs? How do the middle 70s sound? (Sounds just about perfect to me)!

Thinkin’ Towards Fall & Winter…

Where does time go?!  This summer, despite being an absolute “beast” in terms of heat, has absolutely flown by!  As we race towards the cooler months of fall and begin to think about what the upcoming winter season holds, I thought I’d post the latest CFS model for your viewing pleasure.  A fall and winter hint?  Perhaps, but maybe not.  According to this one particular model, it would suggest a chilly Autumn will give way to a slightly midler than normal winter. Hang on to your seats and be looking for my annual Winter Outlook to hit as usual during the first Friday of the October- this year that means October 1st.

A Fall and Winter Hint?

Oh Football Season, You’re Drawing Closer…

As I write this, SEC Media Days is about to get underway in Birmingham. As a huge football fan, this is such an exciting time as the dog days of summer are almost complete, and the cooler days of football-filled fall (say that three times fast) are just around the corner.

No doubt it’s been a long, hot summer, and we still have some way to go, but there is an end in sight to the steamy weather, and as the days continue to grow shorter and we ease deeper into and through the football season, temperatures will really begin to cool.

That brings me back to the start of this, which is SEC Media days. Who is your favorite college football team? As most of you know, I’m the biggest Auburn fan on the planet. In fact, my soon-to-be wife and I already have the weekend planned of September 18th to head south for the Auburn/ Clemson match up.

For those folks getting tired of the seemingly unending hot and sticky days this summer, just know that today is the start of SEC Media Days, which means football season is almost here, which means the brisk northwest winds of Autumn are growing near…

Some Changes Ahead And A Heart Felt THANK YOU!

Mountain City Weather Center will undergo massive changes come this December. I’ve been “toying” with various ideas through the past few months and have finally decided on what I feel the best solution will be. As you know, I simply do not have the amount of time to devote to the site, especially a “premium” site. After toying with ideas such as completely doing away with MCWC and calling it quits after seven years, I’m deciding not only to keep MCWC up and running, but entirely free.

Material on the site will center around more “social media” friendly services and instead of daily complete forecast packages, MCWC will be posting material in a “blog” format. Updates will come during more active times of weather (severe outbreaks, winter storms, flooding, high wind events, etc.), with more generalized weather information hitting the site when the weather patterns aren’t as extreme.

What’s your feedback on the new ideas of MCWC? I, personally, would like to hear your feedback.

As always, thank you for your support of MCWC and I look forward to continuing to present Mountain City’s and Johnson County’s most accurate weather information.

Thank You,

- Bill

*Effective immediately, Climate Data will no longer be recorded on MCWC.

*Bill’s Annual Winter Outlook will be posted, as usual, the first Friday of October.